2011-12-07: 2011 NFL Season Week 14
Week 14 of the 2011 NFL season is upon us. Talk of play-off teams and Superbowl probabilities fill the airwaves even more than Christmas music. Sitting in traffic on the drive home from work tonight I was listening to a few on-air personalities discussing Green Bay and New England for the Superbowl. Green Bay has already clinched a playoff berth and many people would say they are headed to the Superbowl this year. The comment that caught my attention was that the defense for both teams was terrible this year and the only reason they were doing well this year is that their offenses were so good that they could "outscore their mistakes".
This led me to think about the Colts without Peyton Manning this year. For the past 3 or 4 years the Colts with Manning as their quarterback have dominated the sport. It would seem that they built the entire team around Manning. The Colts would run up the score on offense and then the opposing team would be forced to attempt to pass often just to catch up. Then the Colts defense would focus on the opposing teams quarterback to keep him from making plays. Now this year without Manning the Colts have no game. Are Green Bay and New England in a similar situation?
Contemplating statistics during rush hour traffic is a good way to become a statistic so I did not get much more in depth listening to the show, but after arriving home I ran some SQL queries to check the veracity of the claims made by the radio show.
Indeed it is true that the defense for both Green Bay and New England have given up more than the average number of yards this year. They are both almost dead last in defensive performance. Here is a list of the teams with the average number of yards given up per play on both passing and rushing plays.
I have a feeling that a team with a balanced offense and a good pass defense like Pittsburgh or Baltimore could give New England and/or Green Bay a tough time in the post season but maybe we will cover that next week.
The predictions for week 14 are:
-- Greg Szalkowski
This led me to think about the Colts without Peyton Manning this year. For the past 3 or 4 years the Colts with Manning as their quarterback have dominated the sport. It would seem that they built the entire team around Manning. The Colts would run up the score on offense and then the opposing team would be forced to attempt to pass often just to catch up. Then the Colts defense would focus on the opposing teams quarterback to keep him from making plays. Now this year without Manning the Colts have no game. Are Green Bay and New England in a similar situation?
Contemplating statistics during rush hour traffic is a good way to become a statistic so I did not get much more in depth listening to the show, but after arriving home I ran some SQL queries to check the veracity of the claims made by the radio show.
Indeed it is true that the defense for both Green Bay and New England have given up more than the average number of yards this year. They are both almost dead last in defensive performance. Here is a list of the teams with the average number of yards given up per play on both passing and rushing plays.
Team | Yards given up per play |
Atlanta | 4.3638 |
Pittsburgh | 4.7886 |
Baltimore | 4.8224 |
Houston | 4.9090 |
Cincinnati | 5.1182 |
San Francisco | 5.1645 |
New York | 5.1786 |
Cleveland | 5.2142 |
Jacksonville | 5.2292 |
Seattle | 5.3491 |
Tennessee | 5.3568 |
Washington | 5.4359 |
Detroit | 5.5313 |
Arizona | 5.5506 |
Miami | 5.5726 |
Denver | 5.6300 |
Kansas City | 5.6887 |
Chicago | 5.6887 |
Oakland | 5.7423 |
Dallas | 5.7464 |
San Diego | 5.7867 |
Minnesota | 5.8281 |
St. Louis | 5.8436 |
Indianapolis | 5.8923 |
Philadelphia | 6.0145 |
Buffalo | 6.0374 |
New York | 6.0508 |
New Orleans | 6.0600 |
Carolina | 6.3130 |
New England | 6.3642 |
Tampa Bay | 6.4829 |
Green Bay | 6.5041 |
I have a feeling that a team with a balanced offense and a good pass defense like Pittsburgh or Baltimore could give New England and/or Green Bay a tough time in the post season but maybe we will cover that next week.
The predictions for week 14 are:
Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Discrete | Pagerank |
at PIT | 9 | CLE | PIT | PIT |
at BAL | 7 | IND | BAL | BAL |
HOU | 5 | at CIN | CIN | HOU |
at GB | 15 | OAK | GB | GB |
at NYJ | 7 | KC | NYJ | NYJ |
at DET | 7 | MIN | DET | DET |
NO | 2 | at TEN | NO | TEN |
PHI | 9 | at MIA | PHI | PHI |
NE | 15 | at WAS | NE | NE |
ATL | 4 | at CAR | ATL | ATL |
at JAX | 5 | TB | TB | JAX |
SF | 3 | at ARI | SF | SF |
DEN | 2 | CHI | DEN | CHI |
at SD | 12 | BUF | SD | BUF |
at DAL | 3 | NYG | DAL | DAL |
at SEA | 4 | STL | SEA | SEA |
-- Greg Szalkowski
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